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☆ 2024 is the year of the rate cut pivot — here's when the world's central banks will budge
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-13 | by ( Lee Ying Shan | In Ying-Shan-Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

EIU also expects the Bank of Japan will exit its negative interest rate policy in the second quarter. Markets currently expect the Fed to start with a 25-basis-point rate cut in June. Euro zoneThe European Central Bank last week also held its policy rate at a record high of 4%, signaling that it won't cut rates before June. JPMorgan said in a research note that the Turkish central bank may cut its policy rate in November and December, keeping its year-end policy rate forecast of 45%. IndonesiaIndonesia's central bank kept its benchmark policy rate at 6% in its recent meeting.

Persons: EIU, Jerome Powell, LSEG, Nomura, Perry Warjiyo, CNBC's JP Ong, BOK, Goldman Sachs, Goohoon Kwon, Kwon Organizations: Getty, Economist Intelligence Unit, Bank of Japan, United, United States U.S, Federal, Fed, European Central Bank, ECB, Swiss National Bank, UBS, Bank of Canada, Bank of, JPMorgan, Reserve Bank of, ANZ, New Zealand Auckland Savings Bank, Bank, Bank Indonesia, BMI, Fitch Solutions, U.S, Oxford Economics, Macquarie Locations: Czech, China, Japan, United States, Switzerland Swiss, Bank of Canada, Turkey, Turkish, Reserve Bank of Australia, New, Indonesia, South Korea, Asia

☆ Copper could skyrocket over 75% to record highs by 2025 — brace for deficits, analysts say
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-03 | by ( Lee Ying Shan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Copper prices are set to soar more than 75% over the next two years amid mining supply disruptions and higher demand for the metal, fueled by the push for renewable energy. In a December report, the investment bank forecast that the higher renewable energy targets would boost copper demand by extra 4.2 million tons by 2030. This would potentially push copper prices to $15,000 a ton in 2025, the report added, way higher than the record peak of $10,730 per ton scaled in March last year. "This assumes a very soft landing in the U.S. and Europe, an earlier global growth recovery, significant China easing," Citi analysts said, while also emphasizing on continued investments in the energy transition sector. A growing economy tends to boost demand for copper, which is used in electrical equipment and industrial machinery.

Persons: Matty Zhao Organizations: U.S, BMI, Fitch Solutions, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of America Securities, CNBC, Citibank, Citi Locations: Huai'an, Jiangsu Province, China, Asia, Pacific, U.S, Europe

☆ Gold scales 3-month peak as Middle East conflict lifts demand
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold prices hit a three-month high on Friday and were set for a second straight weekly gain, with demand bolstered by the Middle East conflict and expectations that the Federal Reserve's rate hikes are nearing an end. Spot gold was up 0.2% at $1,978.19 per ounce by 0542 GMT, after hitting its highest since July 20. "Gold prices were supported as fears of another Fed rate hike in 2023 subside. We remain neutral towards gold prices for 2023, expecting prices to average $1,950/oz," Fitch Solutions said in a note. Spot silver fell 0.4% to $22.94 per ounce, but was headed for a second weekly rise.

Persons: Kyle Rodda, Yoav Gallant, Jerome Powell, Wang Tao Organizations: Agosi AG, Capital.com, Israeli, Fitch Solutions, Economic, of New Locations: Pforzheim, Israel, Gaza

☆ Southeast Asia looks to renewable power for energy security
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-17 | by ( Audrey Wan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

As energy demand grows, the region is turning to renewable energy to safeguard its energy security. Most, if not all, Southeast Asian markets have taken strides to announce renewable energy targets and formulate their low-carbon energy transition plans, said Thoo. Other planned developments include an integrated renewable energy zone, five centralized large-scale solar parks and three green hydrogen production plants. These projects will leverage Malaysia's estimated 290 gigawatts of technical renewable energy potential to create a more resilient, low-carbon power system, said the ministry. Renewable energy sources such as wind and solar are projected to account for at least 31% of national energy needs by 2030, the government said, according to Reuters.

Persons: EDPR, Bryan van der Beek, Zulfikar Yurnaidi, David Thoo, Zulfikar Organizations: EDPR Sunseap, Energias de Portugal SA, Bloomberg, Getty, Energy, International Energy Agency, ASEAN Center for Energy, BMI Fitch Solutions, Zulfikar Yurnaidi ASEAN Center for Energy, Indonesia Malaysia Malaysia, Ministry, Reuters Locations: Energias, Woodlands, Singapore, Asia, Southeast Asia, Ukraine, Israel, Europe, Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam

☆ This is the world's fastest growing economy, and it could grow an 'explosive' 100%
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-27 | by ( Lee Ying Shan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The world's fastest growing economy may be on track to grow by more than 100% by 2028, largely fueled by profits from its oil production and export sector, according to one analysis. BMI, a Fitch Solutions research unit, is also of the view that "Guyana will see explosive growth this year," said Andrew Trahan, its head of Latin America country risk. He expects real GDP in Guyana to rise about 115% in the next five years. "The exact magnitude of the increase [is] dependent on how quickly additional oil production is brought online," he added. Guyana's Stabroek Block is a 6.6 million acre offshore oil reservoir off the country's Atlantic coast, and is estimated to hold 11 billion barrels of oil, according to ExxonMobil.

Persons: Andrew Trahan Organizations: International Monetary Fund, IMF, BMI, Fitch Solutions, ExxonMobil, Guyana's Locations: Guyana, South America, America

☆ Indonesia's EV ambitions could help boost investments in the rest of Southeast Asia
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-25 | by ( Quek Jie Ann | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Korean automobile manufacturer Kia displays the electric vehicle "EV6 GT-Line" during the 30th Gaikindo Indonesia International Auto Show in Tangerang on August 10, 2023. Indonesia's EV-friendly policies have lured global investors to the country, but experts say they could also boost investments in Southeast Asia's automotive industry more broadly. Indonesia could be the "gateway" to the rest of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, said Anindya Novyan Bakrie, CEO and president director of Bakrie & Brothers, an Indonesian conglomerate whose electric vehicle unit VKTR manufactures electric buses as well as EV parts. The Southeast Asian country is rich in copper, nickel, cobalt and bauxite — materials essential for the manufacturing of electric vehicle batteries. Indonesia is the largest nickel exporter, accounting for 22% of the world's reserves, according to a report by the ASEAN Briefing.

Persons: Anindya Novyan Bakrie, Tesla Organizations: Kia, Indonesia's, Association of Southeast Asian Nations, Bakrie, Brothers, ASEAN, BMI Fitch Solutions, CNBC Locations: Indonesia, Tangerang, Indonesian

☆ India's consumer market set to become the world's third largest by 2027, behind the U.S. and China
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-07 | by ( Charmaine Jacob | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

People check Apple Macbook laptops at the new Apple Inc. store in New Delhi, India on April 20, 2023. India's consumer market is set to become the world's third largest by 2027 as the number of middle to high-income households rise, according to a report by BMI. The country currently ranks fifth, but the Fitch Solutions company predicts a 29% increase in real household spending will push India up two spots. "Overall, the gap between total household spending across ASEAN and India will also almost triple," the report said. BMI estimates India's household spending will exceed $3 trillion as disposable income rises by a compounded 14.6% annually until 2027.

Organizations: Apple Inc, BMI, Fitch Solutions, ASEAN Locations: New Delhi, India, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, Mumbai, Bengaluru

☆ A worldwide lithium shortage could come as soon as 2025
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-29 | by ( Lee Ying Shan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesThe world could face a shortage for lithium as demand for the metal ramps up, with some analysts forecasting that it could come as soon as 2025. BMI, a Fitch Solutions research unit, was among those that predict a lithium supply deficit by 2025. In a recently published report, BMI largely attributed the deficit to China's lithium demand exceeding that of its supply. "We expect an average of 20.4% year-on-year annual growth for China's lithium demand for EVs alone over 2023-2032," the report stated. While that could point to a global lithium surplus next year, shortages could start to plague supply chains in 2028.

Persons: Susan Zou, Corinne Blanchard, Deutsche, Blanchard, Zou Organizations: Sigma, Bloomberg, Getty, BMI, Fitch Solutions, Economic, Rystad Energy, P, Commodity, EV Locations: Itinga, Minas Gerais, Brazil, China, skyrocket, transportations, U.S, Europe

☆ Vietnam's EV ownership will see 'strong growth' in 2023, says new report
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-07 | by ( Sheila Chiang | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Vietnam's electric vehicle market appears poised for rapid expansion in the next decade, but there could be significant headwinds blunting that growth. According to BMI Research, a Fitch Solutions research unit, passenger EV sales in the country is expected to at least double this year. "In 2023, we expect passenger EV sales to expand by 114.8% year-on-year to reach around 18,000 units," said BMI's report published Thursday. Specifically, sales for battery electric vehicle (BEV) could surge by 104.4% compared to the previous year to nearly 17,000 units, the report said. The penetration rate for passenger EVs — defined as passenger EV sales as a percentage of the country's total passenger vehicle sales — is set to increase to 13.6% by 2030.

Persons: BEV Organizations: BMI Research, Fitch Solutions, Vietnam Automobile Manufacturers Association, Electric Locations: Vietnam, That's

☆ India's rice export ban to hurt millions globally. These countries will be the worst hit
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-02 | by ( Lee Ying Shan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

20 Xinhua News Agency | Xinhua News Agency | Getty ImagesIndia's rice export ban could ripple across global rice markets — and millions are expected to be impacted, with Asian and African consumers set to bear the biggest brunt. The scale of people impacted by Indian rice ban will be in millions. Other affected regionsAsia is not the only region hit by India's rice export ban, many African and Middle East nations are also vulnerable. That means up to 40% of India's rice exports are now offline, according to BMI forecasts. India's rice export ban is expected to ripple across global rice markets.

Persons: Mohanty, Samarendu Mohanty, Narendra Modi Organizations: Xinhua News Agency, Getty, Barclays, El Nino, BMI, Fitch Solutions, Workers, International Potato Center, CIP Locations: Nagaon district, India's, Assam, India, Malaysia, Asia, Singapore, Thailand, Pakistan, Vietnam, Philippines, Saharan Africa, East, North Africa, Djibouti, Liberia, Qatar, Gambia, Kuwait, Cambodia, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Nepal

☆ India's tomato prices surge over 300%, sparking theft and turmoil
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-13 | by ( Lee Ying Shan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Tomato prices surged 366.86% from 26.76 rupees per kg at the start of the year to 108.92 rupees per kg as of July 11. India is facing a tomato crisis as prices have skyrocketed more than 300% due to extreme weather conditions. Tomato prices surged 341% year-to-date, from 24.68 rupees per kg to 108.92 rupees per kg as of July 11, data from the Department of Consumer Affairs showed. "Due to excess rainfall in these states, tomato [crops have] been highly affected… A large part of the tomato crop has been destroyed due to rains and flood," the council stated. Another popular Indian dish, the Andhra Tomato Kura (tomato curry) is also widely enjoyed by locals.

Persons: Damien Yeo Organizations: Department of Consumer Affairs, National, BMI, Fitch Solutions Locations: Kolkata, India, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Karnataka

☆ Australia and Indonesia have signed a 'win-win' EV battery deal, analyst says
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-05 | by ( Lee Ying Shan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Mining giants Australia and Indonesia have signed a "win-win" EV battery deal, said Sabrin Chowdhury, head of commodities analysis at BMI, a research unit of Fitch Solutions. Indonesian President Joko Widodo met his Australian counterpart Anthony Albanese on Tuesday during a three-day state visit to Australia. The two countries welcomed "new commercial deals between Australian and Indonesian business across the health, mining and digital economy sectors," according to a government press release. "[Indonesia] has a major aim to develop its EV manufacturing industry. "Lithium and nickel together, they're very important parts of EV batteries.

Persons: Sabrin Chowdhury, Joko Widodo, Anthony Albanese, Chowdhury Organizations: Mining, EV, BMI, Fitch Solutions, CNBC Locations: Australia, Indonesia, Indonesian

☆ China's economy could be 'quite a bit larger' than the United States' by 2050, says Fitch Solutions
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChina's economy could be 'quite a bit larger' than the United States' by 2050, says Fitch SolutionsCedric Chehab, global head of country risk at Fitch Solutions, says China's economy will be a "little bit larger" than the United States' by 2037.

Persons: Cedric Chehab Organizations: Fitch Solutions Locations: United States

☆ El Nino is approaching and your next cup of coffee could be at risk
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-06 | by ( Lee Ying Shan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Extreme weather conditions brought on by an approaching El Nino are fueling concerns that robusta beans in major coffee producers like Vietnam and Indonesia could be hit, resulting in soaring prices. "The now widely-expected transition to El Nino conditions in Q323 has stoked fears of reduced output in Vietnam and Indonesia, both major coffee robusta producers," Fitch Solutions' research unit BMI said in report dated May 24. Robusta beans are known for their bitter characteristics and higher acidity, containing more caffeine than their premium and pricier arabica counterpart. El Nino is a weather phenomenon that typically brings hotter and drier than usual conditions to the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Climate scientists are predicting that this year's El Nino could descend in the second half of 2023.

Persons: El, El Nino Organizations: Fitch Solutions, BMI Locations: El Nino, Vietnam, Indonesia, Southeast Asia

☆ Milk prices in the world's dairy powerhouse India have spiked 15%
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-25 | by ( Lee Ying Shan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

India is facing an increase in milk prices, and it's not expected to ease up until November. Matthew Lloyd | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesIndia, the world's dairy powerhouse, is facing an increase in milk prices, and it's not expected to ease up until November. India, the world's leading producer of milk, accounts for 22% of global milk production and followed by the U.S. China, Pakistan and Brazil. Higher feed costsHigher cattle feed prices that coincide with the peak demand season are feeding into the spike in milk prices. India is facing an increase in milk prices, and it's not expected to ease up until November.

☆ Chile's lithium takeover plan faces technical, political challenges
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( Fabian Cambero | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

[1/3] A view of a brine pool of a lithium mine on the Atacama salt flat in the Atacama desert, Chile, August 16, 2018. REUTERS/Ivan Alvarado/File PhotoSANTIAGO, April 28 (Reuters) - While Chile's plan to take control of its lithium industry has caused global shockwaves, state-led production of the metal used to make electric vehicle batteries is seen by analysts as likely years away given technical and political challenges. CODELCO'S ROLEChile's state-run Codelco, the largest copper producer in the world, plays a key role in Boric's lithium plan although it has no experience in producing the white metal. The report noted that Argentina currently has more lithium projects in the pipeline than any other country in the world. Albemarle has said it needs new water sources to expand in Chile's Atacama salt flat, noting a desalination project was awaiting permits and construction.

☆ Calls to move away from the U.S. dollar are growing — but the greenback is still king
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-24 | by ( Penny Chen | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Kacper Pempel | ReutersCalls to move away from relying on the U.S. dollar for trade are growing. The U.S. dollar accounted for 58.36% of global foreign exchange reserves in the fourth quarter last year, according to data from the IMF's Currency Composition of Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER). China is one of the most active players in this push given its dominant position in global trade right now, and as the world's second largest economy. The IMF estimates that Asia could contribute more than 70% to global growth this year. In the Middle East, major oil exporter Saudi Arabia has reportedly signaled it's open to trade in other currencies other than the greenback.

[1/2] Hywind Tampen floating wind farm structures are being assembled at the Wergeland Base in Gulen, Norway, June 7, 2022. But by 2035, the LCOE for floating wind is expected to fall to about 60 euros/MWh. It plans to set a specific target for floating wind this year. Britain aims to have 5 GW of floating wind installed by 2030 but a report by the UK Floating Wind Offshore Wind Taskforce, said 34 GW could be installed by 2040 if ports were upgraded. "South Korea will be commercial the quickest," said Cole at Corio Generation, which has 1.5 GW of floating wind under development there.

☆ Global rice shortage is set to be the largest in 20 years – here's why
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Lee Ying Shan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The global rice market is set to log its largest shortfall in two decades in 2023, according to Fitch Solutions. "At the global level, the most evident impact of the global rice deficit has been, and still is, decade-high rice prices," Fitch Solutions' commodities analyst Charles Hart said. That would mar the largest global rice deficit since 2003/2004, when the global rice markets generated a deficit of 18.6 million tonnes, said Hart. "The global rice production deficit situation will increase the cost of importing rice for major rice importers such as Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia and African countries in 2023," said Tjakra. "It is our view that global rice production will stage a solid rebound in 2023/24, expecting total output to rise by 2.5% year on year," Fitch's report forecast, hinging on India being a "principal engine" of global rice output over the next five years.

☆ Copper Shortage Threatens Green Transition
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-18 | by ( Yusuf Khan | ) www.wsj.com time to read: +5 min

In 2021, refined copper demand stood at 25.3 million tons, according to the International Copper Study Group. Mined output globally in 2022 was 21.8 million tons according to the International Copper Study Group, rising only 1 million tons over the previous three years. According to Congo’s Ministry of Mines, copper metal exports totaled 2.3 million metric tons in 2022, up from 1.8 million metric tons in 2021, less than half of Chile’s output. According to analysts it is more of a “when” not an “if” copper demand is likely to surge. Changes in technology should ease some copper demand pressures.

☆ Loss of U.S. dollar dominance would be a 'slow erosion,' not a 'paradigm shift': Fitch Solutions
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailLoss of U.S. dollar dominance would be a 'slow erosion,' not a 'paradigm shift': Fitch SolutionsCedric Chehab of Fitch Solutions says it will take a long time for any single currency to "usurp" the dollar.

☆ Big copper deals to take centerstage in Santiago as demand heats up
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Lundin Mining Corp (LUN.TO) is paying nearly $1 billion for control of Chile's Caserones copper mine despite ongoing political uncertainty in the country. "The green transformation theme remains a strong tailwind for copper, the king of green metals," Saxo Bank strategist Ole Hansen told Reuters. Global copper demand expected to reach 53 million tonnes annually by 2053 - more than double current levels - but supply is still expected to fall short, according an S&P Global (SPGI.N) study. And Hudbay Minerals Inc (HBM.TO) last week said it would pay $439 million for rival Copper Mountain Mining Corp (CMMC.TO). Neighboring Peru, the world's second-largest copper producer, also expects to boost production this year.

☆ Tesla's target of 20 million cars by 2030 is going to be a challenge, auto analyst says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTesla's target of 20 million cars by 2030 is going to be a challenge, auto analyst saysAnna-Marie Baisden of Fitch Solutions says Tesla's target to produce 20 million cars by 2030 is "going to be a challenge."

☆ Emerging markets are getting attention. Morgan Stanley names the 'highest quality' stocks to play it
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-09 | by ( Zavier Ong | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Emerging market stocks are piquing investor interest. Against that backdrop, Morgan Stanley named a raft of EM stocks it says are of the "highest quality" and are trading at reasonable prices. Morgan Stanley said valuations look "attractive" for the 29 stocks that turned up on its screen. Morgan Stanley likes Alibaba as a play on China's reopening and consumption recovery. Singapore-based utilities firm Sembcorp Industries is another Morgan Stanley favorite.

Maike's absence has encouraged some direct trade between sellers and buyers in the market but they face challenges. Fitch Solutions expects China's copper consumption to rise 4.4% this year, after just 1.5% growth in 2022. Anti-pandemic restrictions had also prolonged smelter maintenance and curtailed copper production growth last year, especially in the Guangdong area. Some smelters there have hiked their offers for 2023 copper premiums to 300 yuan a tonne, up from 200 yuan a tonne last year, a Shanghai-based trader said. While Maike's disappearance from the import market has been blamed for disrupting supplies and pricing, China's refined copper imports increased 6.6% in 2022, according to customs data.

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